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Saturday, September 22, 2007


If you look at the Coal Production Curve below you will notice that coal production follows the same production curve as oil or any other natural resource.


Read the entire report here:

Read why crude oil production is not a linear process

Read chapter 5 of Paul Thompson's book "The Wolfe At The Door".

You can order the entire book from Paul here.
Paul is from Reading, UK England.

Thursday, September 20, 2007

Swing Producer OPEC tips the Balance

"OPEC's export capacity to fall -  Driving oil prices to US$100 barrel in 2008, forecasts leading oil economist at global energy conference".
For more than three decades OPEC's function in the oil market was to be the world swing producer for curde oil. If the price of oil was too high and the economy was expected to grow, OPEC sat together and increased the supply so the price of crude oil would go down. That worked perfectly, it was a nice arrangement to keep the world in balance. As you know crude oil is the life blood of our society - in the West, in the East, in the North and in the South. Somehow Rudolf Diesel disappeard in 1915, and ever since all trucks are fueld by fossil diesel (and not by vegetable oil - this is not a joke!), cars drive on fossil gas (benzin), the entire world economy has been fueled by fossil oil - it was a cheap way to make us rich and big fast.  
So, what has changed now? What has changed now is that OPEC has peaked! Price for crude goes up, but OPEC cannot lower the price by supplying more. As a consequence, increases in crude oil price cannot be stopped anymore nor by OPEC or by any other oil producer because no producer is capable of  increasing oil supply. Maybe a little, but not for long any more. Based on several studies, forecasts and estimates, OPEC is supposed to peak
Now, read this article on Al Bawaba's* website:
*) Al Bawaba is the largest independent content producer in the Middle East, and provides daily news feeds to the world's top international publishers, including Reuters, Financial Times, and Dow Jones.

Tuesday, September 18, 2007

Rational people don't act based on theories!

History shows, people don’t like to base their actions on theories. When they do, they are either stupid or risk takers. It takes courage and risk to prove that a theory is true. Sometimes gigantic experiments are necessary to prove a theory (e.g. it took years and several experiments to prove the relativity theory by Albert Einstein). Sometimes, history will do its part. In the case of the peak oil theory*, history gives us the data we need to prove the peak oil theory.

The peak oil theory has been verified several times by historic examples. The first time was in the seventies when the US oil production peaked and then declined each and every year since that peak date 1971 leaving a vast worldwide economic disruption. Compare US oil production curves below in this blog. Interestingly, most people who actually know about the peak oil theory do acknoledge that this theory reflects reality.

Today, the peak oil theory is a well known fact among a small but growing group of people. However, the average person is very much in the dark of the peak oil concept. Many peak events of major oil fields happened just recently in the world (see alert links and pictures below), which all contribute to a crystal-clear picture of the geological fact that oil production/extraction levels follow this peak oil bell curve. The best research article I have found about these production curves can be found at

Still, the peak oil fact is being ignored, neglected and downplayed by a vast majority of politicians, the mainstream media and almost all oil companies. This development and the consequences of this ignorance worry me!

I would like to share some of my recent new alerts which I have subscribed to. They should not leave any doubt about the fact that there is more going on than middle east politics, crude oil inventory levels, hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, terror attacks on oil facilities or economic growth considerations by OPEC. With dramatically raising oil and gas prices peak oil becomes visible now! Please read on...

Ingemar Anderson
Supply Chain Analyst

*) The peak oil theory claims that oil production of any oil field peaks and declines shortly after. The theory has been developed by M. K. Huppert in 1957.

Peak oil: Facts converge with theory
Hindu Business Line - India
Over the last couple of years, this column has elaborated on the different theories that predict the timing of peak oil. It has also analysed other ...
See all stories on this topic

The end of oil - USA
That's the worst-case scenario for subscribers to the "peak oil" theory, who generally believe oil production has either topped out or will do so in the ...
See all stories on this topic

Morning business news - Sept 17 - Ireland
Cork is host to the sixth annual conference of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil. Peak Oil is the point when global oil production begins to decline ...
See all stories on this topic

A Peek at the Peak Oil Problem
Daily Reckoning - American Edition - Baltimore,MD,USA
This is the reference to peak oil that I was looking for! It is the perfect bit of delicious data allowing me to modify my answer about peak oil by saying, ...
See all stories on this topic

Former Shell Exec Sees Oil Hitting $150
BusinessWeek - USA
In an interview with The Independent on Sunday ahead of his address to the Association for the Study of Peak Oil in Ireland this week, Lord Oxburgh, ...
See all stories on this topic

Options Trader: Monday AM Outlook
Seeking Alpha - New York,NY,USA
But when you look at the data, you will see it doesn't match, and when you talk about peak oil and see what is happening to non-OPEC supply, ...
See all stories on this topic

Analysis and Discussion of the European Energy Gap and Peak Oil
The Oil Drum - USA
ASPO The official site of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas. Energy Bulletin Clearing house for news regarding the peak in global energy ...
See all stories on this topic

Oil shock to cause massive social dislocation
Melbourne Herald Sun - Australia
The report on the looming 'peak oil' crisis concludes that we will have to re-think the way we live and travel in the next few years as relatively cheap ...
See all stories on this topic

Alert from Blog Sites:

QLD report: peak oil approaching
By Nathan
An as-yet-unreleased report, commissioned by the Queensland government, has thrown its weight behind peak oil theory and warns of significant social and economic symptoms if a peak oil event is approached unprepared. ...
Alternative Fuels Australia -

Engdahl and peak oil
Staff, Energy Bulletin. Author and economist F. William Engdahl has just made a surprising turnabout on peak oil. He now supports the idea of the abiotic origin of petroleum. (Excerpts from interviews and past articles.) Peak Oil -

Alan Greenspan On The Retreat
By Big Gav(Big Gav)
In an interview with The Independent on Sunday ahead of his address to the Association for the Study of Peak Oil in Ireland this week, Lord Oxburgh, one of the most respected names in the energy industry, said a rapid increase in the ...
Peak Energy -

Peak Oil and Gender
By Jon Lebkowsky
Jon Lebkowsky: Kurt Cobb at Energy Bulletin wonders whether peak oil is a gender issue or, as he says, a "guy thing." (Thanks to Paul Robbins for...
WorldChanging: Tools, Models... -

Is a former Shell Oil exec becoming a peak oil adeherent?
By Tim Haab
Commenting on whether "peak oil" - the point when global oil production goes into terminal decline - was likely to be reached in the near future, he said: "In a way it scarcely matters; what really matters is the gap between production ...
Environmental Economics -

Thursday, September 13, 2007

"There has never been economic growth without energy."

"There has never been economic growth without energy."
Rex W. Tillerson, Chairman and CEO, Exxon Mobil Corporation. Link to speech:

Wednesday, September 12, 2007

To me it looks like: OPEC has peaked!

An assessment of James Hamilton and Menzie Chinn illustrate how the OPEC quotas and the actual oil production differs:

  • James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego
  • Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison
  • Read the following article by

    OPEC production quotas
    The interpretation that I have been favoring for why Saudi production fell by a million barrels per day over the last two years is that production from northern Ghawar, their most important oil field, has peaked.


    Monday, September 10, 2007

    voting for crude oil alerts

    hi Ingemar,
    I changed my vote because the right answer is peanut oil.

    Sunday, September 9, 2007

    Most Informative and Clear Report about Peak Oil: The Hirsch Report 2007

    "Because oil is a depleting, finite natural resource, world conventional oil production will reach a maximum, called "the peak," after which production will decline. Using differing methodologies and information of widely varying quality, experts and organizations have attempted to forecast the likely year of conventional oil production peaking. Their range of estimates extends from late last year to an apparent denial that it will ever happen. Almost all
    forecasts are based on differing, often dramatically differing geological assumptions. Explicit account of investment rates in new and expanded production has been relatively rare."
    Peaking of World Oil Production: Recent Forecasts, February 5, 2007

    Thursday, September 6, 2007

    Alert - Ghawar

    The inconvenient truth about the world's biggest oil field published by the monthly magazine The Atlantic.

    Running Dry
    Atlantic Online - USA
    The Ghawar oil field is the kingdom's crown jewel. Stretching for more than 150 miles beneath the desert, it is the largest known deposit in the world. ...

    Wednesday, September 5, 2007

    Play The Energy Game

    Have you ever played SimCity? Now, Chevron is providing their version of SimCity. A nice initiative which might rise the awareness of our energy dependency. It is an interactive game where you can plan your own city and at the same time learn about some facts regarding the type and amount of energy a city consumes. Start the game here and click on "Play the game".

    US Government Accountability Office Announces Peak Oil

    In February 2007, the United States Government Accountability Office (GAO) released a detailed report addressing a peak in oil output. You can find the 82 page long study here:

    Monday, September 3, 2007

    What A Nice Poem About Life: Life is a Bell Curve

    "Life is a bell curve. We needn't fear growing old. When I was born you cried tears of joy and hope. When I was a baby, you swaddled me tight in warm blankets and cradled my head so gently as to not break my neck and my bones. You held a cup to my mouth so I could learn to drink. When I was a toddler, I made up stories about things that rattled in my imagination. I thought they were true. When I was a child I wanted to break free and run. But you chased after me and told me to be careful and think ahead. When I was a young adult I cared for myself. I made my own choices. I thought my body could do anything with enough time and conditioning. When I was 30 I lived my life for others. I felt trapped and stuck. I didn't see an end to caring for those I chose to love. When I was 45, I realized that time did not stretch out forever. The little birds I tended were flying away. They wanted to break free and run. Money was all I could see to serve because we need it today and tomorrow when the working was done. When I am 50 I will care for others and worry and fret about their care. They will get sick and old and I will think and hope and wish it would end and hope it never ends. When I am 60, I will start to play again. I will play with children. I will call my friends my girlfriends again. We will giggle and play cards and run free. But you will chase after me and tell me I can't do whatever I want. You will tell me I don't think things through. You will tell me to slow down and take care of myself. When I am 80 I will spill food on my clothes and toddle off. I will tell you stories about things that rattle around in my imagination. I will believe they are true though you know they are not. You will hold my hand so I don't fall. And when I am really old I will get cold and you will swaddle me in blankets and hold my head so I can drink from the cup in your hand. You will see me being birthed again and you will cry the tears of joy and hope once more. ". [1]

    Alert - Ghawar

    GHAWAR NOW EMPTY. We have already pumped more oil out of Ghawar than the 1975 estimate of Ghawar's ultimately recoverable reserves (URR), according to data from Matt Simmons himself. So how do you explain that? ...
    cars -

    Welcome to the Crude-Oil-Alerts Blog!

    You might have heard: oil is a finite resource. So, it will run out one day. But before that happens crude oil production rates will decline and world oil supply is at risk. Some say peak production is already at hand and the curde oil markets are out of control. The goal of this blog is to provide the most comprehensive and updated platform on the topic of peak oil.

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