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Thursday, September 20, 2007

Swing Producer OPEC tips the Balance

"OPEC's export capacity to fall -  Driving oil prices to US$100 barrel in 2008, forecasts leading oil economist at global energy conference".
For more than three decades OPEC's function in the oil market was to be the world swing producer for curde oil. If the price of oil was too high and the economy was expected to grow, OPEC sat together and increased the supply so the price of crude oil would go down. That worked perfectly, it was a nice arrangement to keep the world in balance. As you know crude oil is the life blood of our society - in the West, in the East, in the North and in the South. Somehow Rudolf Diesel disappeard in 1915, and ever since all trucks are fueld by fossil diesel (and not by vegetable oil - this is not a joke!), cars drive on fossil gas (benzin), the entire world economy has been fueled by fossil oil - it was a cheap way to make us rich and big fast.  
So, what has changed now? What has changed now is that OPEC has peaked! Price for crude goes up, but OPEC cannot lower the price by supplying more. As a consequence, increases in crude oil price cannot be stopped anymore nor by OPEC or by any other oil producer because no producer is capable of  increasing oil supply. Maybe a little, but not for long any more. Based on several studies, forecasts and estimates, OPEC is supposed to peak
Now, read this article on Al Bawaba's* website:
*) Al Bawaba is the largest independent content producer in the Middle East, and provides daily news feeds to the world's top international publishers, including Reuters, Financial Times, and Dow Jones.

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