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Tuesday, September 18, 2007

Rational people don't act based on theories!

History shows, people don’t like to base their actions on theories. When they do, they are either stupid or risk takers. It takes courage and risk to prove that a theory is true. Sometimes gigantic experiments are necessary to prove a theory (e.g. it took years and several experiments to prove the relativity theory by Albert Einstein). Sometimes, history will do its part. In the case of the peak oil theory*, history gives us the data we need to prove the peak oil theory.

The peak oil theory has been verified several times by historic examples. The first time was in the seventies when the US oil production peaked and then declined each and every year since that peak date 1971 leaving a vast worldwide economic disruption. Compare US oil production curves below in this blog. Interestingly, most people who actually know about the peak oil theory do acknoledge that this theory reflects reality.

Today, the peak oil theory is a well known fact among a small but growing group of people. However, the average person is very much in the dark of the peak oil concept. Many peak events of major oil fields happened just recently in the world (see alert links and pictures below), which all contribute to a crystal-clear picture of the geological fact that oil production/extraction levels follow this peak oil bell curve. The best research article I have found about these production curves can be found at

Still, the peak oil fact is being ignored, neglected and downplayed by a vast majority of politicians, the mainstream media and almost all oil companies. This development and the consequences of this ignorance worry me!

I would like to share some of my recent new alerts which I have subscribed to. They should not leave any doubt about the fact that there is more going on than middle east politics, crude oil inventory levels, hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, terror attacks on oil facilities or economic growth considerations by OPEC. With dramatically raising oil and gas prices peak oil becomes visible now! Please read on...

Ingemar Anderson
Supply Chain Analyst

*) The peak oil theory claims that oil production of any oil field peaks and declines shortly after. The theory has been developed by M. K. Huppert in 1957.

Peak oil: Facts converge with theory
Hindu Business Line - India
Over the last couple of years, this column has elaborated on the different theories that predict the timing of peak oil. It has also analysed other ...
See all stories on this topic

The end of oil - USA
That's the worst-case scenario for subscribers to the "peak oil" theory, who generally believe oil production has either topped out or will do so in the ...
See all stories on this topic

Morning business news - Sept 17 - Ireland
Cork is host to the sixth annual conference of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil. Peak Oil is the point when global oil production begins to decline ...
See all stories on this topic

A Peek at the Peak Oil Problem
Daily Reckoning - American Edition - Baltimore,MD,USA
This is the reference to peak oil that I was looking for! It is the perfect bit of delicious data allowing me to modify my answer about peak oil by saying, ...
See all stories on this topic

Former Shell Exec Sees Oil Hitting $150
BusinessWeek - USA
In an interview with The Independent on Sunday ahead of his address to the Association for the Study of Peak Oil in Ireland this week, Lord Oxburgh, ...
See all stories on this topic

Options Trader: Monday AM Outlook
Seeking Alpha - New York,NY,USA
But when you look at the data, you will see it doesn't match, and when you talk about peak oil and see what is happening to non-OPEC supply, ...
See all stories on this topic

Analysis and Discussion of the European Energy Gap and Peak Oil
The Oil Drum - USA
ASPO The official site of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas. Energy Bulletin Clearing house for news regarding the peak in global energy ...
See all stories on this topic

Oil shock to cause massive social dislocation
Melbourne Herald Sun - Australia
The report on the looming 'peak oil' crisis concludes that we will have to re-think the way we live and travel in the next few years as relatively cheap ...
See all stories on this topic

Alert from Blog Sites:

QLD report: peak oil approaching
By Nathan
An as-yet-unreleased report, commissioned by the Queensland government, has thrown its weight behind peak oil theory and warns of significant social and economic symptoms if a peak oil event is approached unprepared. ...
Alternative Fuels Australia -

Engdahl and peak oil
Staff, Energy Bulletin. Author and economist F. William Engdahl has just made a surprising turnabout on peak oil. He now supports the idea of the abiotic origin of petroleum. (Excerpts from interviews and past articles.) Peak Oil -

Alan Greenspan On The Retreat
By Big Gav(Big Gav)
In an interview with The Independent on Sunday ahead of his address to the Association for the Study of Peak Oil in Ireland this week, Lord Oxburgh, one of the most respected names in the energy industry, said a rapid increase in the ...
Peak Energy -

Peak Oil and Gender
By Jon Lebkowsky
Jon Lebkowsky: Kurt Cobb at Energy Bulletin wonders whether peak oil is a gender issue or, as he says, a "guy thing." (Thanks to Paul Robbins for...
WorldChanging: Tools, Models... -

Is a former Shell Oil exec becoming a peak oil adeherent?
By Tim Haab
Commenting on whether "peak oil" - the point when global oil production goes into terminal decline - was likely to be reached in the near future, he said: "In a way it scarcely matters; what really matters is the gap between production ...
Environmental Economics -

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