Thursday, November 15, 2007
When will there be any further local activities on Bainbridge to increase community and peak oil awareness?
There is no great dispute over the fact that crude oil production and economic growth are interrelated.
However, awareness of this fact and its consequences are not well accepted in public. The two graphs above (Source) illustrate exactly this correlation from the early 70's up until today. The dire consequences when world crude oil production declines are the main concern of peak oilers today. Most people underestimate the effect on global economic growth and the consequences of a shrinking economy called depression or economic collapse. What it means for people is job loss, financial hardship, in many cases loss of housing, unacceptable increase of crime, ... In other words, third world conditions.
Whereas recession is a mild economic slowdown for about 2 years, a depression is a severe decline in economic activity. Economic conditions in a depression are characterized by falling prices, reduced purchasing power, an excess of supply over demand, rising unemployment, accumulating inventories, deflation, plant contraction, public fear and caution, and a general decrease in business activity. (compare reference on anwers.com.) Interestingly, in a depression prices are falling and supply outstrips demand. How would a depression scenario triggered by peak oil look like? Why would supply suddenly be higher than demand after crude oil shortages make economic growth harder and harder?
While recessions are part of a normal business cycle, depressions occur when the economy does not recover from a recession. When demand does not pick up anymore after a recession because infrastructure and market mechanisms were damaged too much by the declining economy, supply does not reach the consumer anymore and the business system is not functional anymore. This scenario did happen during the Great Depression in the 1930's. A similar scenario might happen when crude oil supply will strangle economic growth and damage existing economic mechanisms like transportation systems, trading platforms or communication systems.
The only way to prevent this economic meltdown is to invest in alternative energy supply systems and market systems which are independent from crude oil supply.
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
Saturday, November 3, 2007
On January 31, 2006, George W. Bush said in his State of the Union the following: "Keeping America competitive requires affordable energy. And here we have a serious problem: America is addicted to oil, which is often imported from unstable parts of the world."
To break this addiction many people came up with different ideas. Don't be Fueled from San Francisco started a group that supports efficient cars and energy conservation. Chevron educates about about the oil addiction at http://www.willyoujoinus.com/. And President Bush says: "The best way to break this addiction is through technology."
Is there really a reasonable way to break this addiction? Will we all be going to the Oil Addiction Treatment Center one day? Comments welcome!
Thursday, November 1, 2007
Here is a good Voice of America report including a 3 minute video report about the October 2007 ASPO conference in Houston:
In October 2007 a sub committee published a report about world peak oil based on a field by field analysis and the results are staggering. It is the best peak oil report I have ever read before.
The english report can be downloaded here: Energy Watch Group Crude Oil - The Supply Outlook 2007