John Hofmeister doesn’t call it ‘peak oil,’

John Hofmeister doesn't call it 'peak oil,' instead he calls it the 'energy abyss,' the point at which the global economy ceases to grow because the oil industry can no longer meet demand. Read about John Hofmeister's assessment:

http://www.evworld.com/focus.cfm?cid=144

Re: The U.S. Department of Energy provides Educational Peak Oil Poster

Forwarded from 2007. Re-Post:

On Oct 11, 2007, at 12:35 AM, Ingemar Anderson <ingemar.alerts@gmail.com> wrote:

"All about Oil and Gas", this is how the Guy Caruso, head of the U.S. Department of Energy in 2005 titled a series of 10 educational posers, which are available for download as pdf files. One of these posters is called " Peak Oil - the Turning Point". The poster is very informative and lists the basic facts about peak oil. However, the Energy Information Agency (EIA) states that they believe that the peak in world in oil production is decades away although the poster also shows forecasts by respected authorities in the field of energy, which claim that the peak is just years away or is even happening right now.*)

 

So, although somewhat confusing in terms of the actual peaking time, it is remarkable that the U.S. Government comments on the topic of peak oil, and more importantly agrees with the fact of peak oil.

 

You can download the peak oil poster here and the entire selection of 10 posters about energy can be viewed  here.

 

*) Also compare the EIA report of 2007, which gives very different picture of the peak oil event.

 

 

 

 

5 Years Later .... 2008 - 2013

Five years after my last post it seams nothing in the land of energy has changed. Peak oil seems to be as dead or even 'deader' than ever. But wait ... what about 94$ a barrel today? What about fracking? Fracking? What is that? Well, the world did change since 2008. Fracking is something that has been started to compensate the decline of conventional crude oil and gas production.

In my eyes, peak oil is everywhere today. And how bad can it be? The national debt ceiling has been reached several times in the last years, and no end is in sight. 16 trillion dollars national debt, about 115% of GDP. Well, is the high debt maybe consequence of peak oil? Our money we used to put into the economy now goes into gasoline expenses and all other expenses related to crude oil, and much of that money goes straight to oil exporting countries.

Well, but that will change now with fracking. Fracking is a technology used in the US to produce oil and gas from US soil, in the US for the US. Fracking will ease the effects of peak oil on America, which is good for the American economy. Let's not mention some areas that are environmentally badly affected by fracking.

Now, I wil watch energy supply developments more closely again to make my personal investment decisions even more well-rounded.  This blog is still and again a viable source of daily refreshed and refreshing worldwide news about all sorts of energy related issues.

Happy reading!

Ingemar

Resource Depletion Theory

The Resource Depletion Theory claims that every non-renewable resource and every renewable resource coming from a finite storage place can be exhausted only by following the depletion curve. In the picture to below you can see how production levels for three real-life examples follow a bell shaped curve.

This theory has been first announced by M.K. Hubbert in 1956 for oil and other commodities, and it is known today as "peak oil theory". However, this theory has been confirmed through the oil production of many oil fields worldwide but is still denied by many scientists and economic leaders today.

The "Resource Depletion Theory" is a broader more simplified approach of that same concept of M.K. Hubbert. Studying the diagrams above should reveal to the reader that the concept of depleting resources is universal and a simple matter of mathematics and common sense.

The President Says OPEC can't increase Oil Production!

In other words: the president says OPEC has hit Peak Oil Production!

 

Watch the video with the president's quote:

 

http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=4140859

Confused about Peak Oil? READ THIS!

I have never read such a clear assessment of the situation related to peak oil. Thanks Mr. Payne.

 

Mr. Payne is an "upstream oil and gas professional with over 25 years of experience. Past Chairman, Houston Chapter of the American Petroleum Institute (API). Member of American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME), Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE), American Solar Energy Society (ASES)."

 

Please read his article on the EnergyBulletin: http://www.energybulletin.net/39308.html

Peak Oil Presentation on Bainbridge Island, WA

In 2005, Rick Bunch talked about the adaption for Peak Oil in Bainbridge .









When will there be any further local activities on Bainbridge to increase community and peak oil awareness?

Crude Oil Production and Economic Growth

There is no great dispute over the fact that crude oil production and economic growth are interrelated.

However, awareness of this fact and its consequences are not well accepted in public. The two graphs above (Source) illustrate exactly this correlation from the early 70's up until today. The dire consequences when world crude oil production declines are the main concern of peak oilers today. Most people underestimate the effect on global economic growth and the consequences of a shrinking economy called depression or economic collapse. What it means for people is job loss, financial hardship, in many cases loss of housing, unacceptable increase of crime, ... In other words, third world conditions.

Whereas recession is a mild economic slowdown for about 2 years, a depression is a severe decline in economic activity. Economic conditions in a depression are characterized by falling prices, reduced purchasing power, an excess of supply over demand, rising unemployment, accumulating inventories, deflation, plant contraction, public fear and caution, and a general decrease in business activity. (compare reference on anwers.com.) Interestingly, in a depression prices are falling and supply outstrips demand. How would a depression scenario triggered by peak oil look like? Why would supply suddenly be higher than demand after crude oil shortages make economic growth harder and harder?

While recessions are part of a normal business cycle, depressions occur when the economy does not recover from a recession. When demand does not pick up anymore after a recession because infrastructure and market mechanisms were damaged too much by the declining economy, supply does not reach the consumer anymore and the business system is not functional anymore. This scenario did happen during the Great Depression in the 1930's. A similar scenario might happen when crude oil supply will strangle economic growth and damage existing economic mechanisms like transportation systems, trading platforms or communication systems.

The only way to prevent this economic meltdown is to invest in alternative energy supply systems and market systems which are independent from crude oil supply.

Peak Oil Investment Tip: 'Invest in People'

Alan Wartes, the hydrocarbon man has written a to do list for the live after peak oil. But his article about investment in the era of peak oil is quite interesting.

Oil Addiction Treatment Center

On January 31, 2006, George W. Bush said in his State of the Union the following: "Keeping America competitive requires affordable energy. And here we have a serious problem: America is addicted to oil, which is often imported from unstable parts of the world."

To break this addiction many people came up with different ideas. Don't be Fueled from San Francisco started a group that supports efficient cars and energy conservation. Chevron educates about about the oil addiction at http://www.willyoujoinus.com/. And President Bush says: "The best way to break this addiction is through technology."

Is there really a reasonable way to break this addiction? Will we all be going to the Oil Addiction Treatment Center one day? Comments welcome!

Voice of America Reports on Peak Oil

Now, it seems the topic of peak oil is all over the media. CNN, Reuters and Voice of America is reporting in detail about events that hint we are at world peak oil production. These are dramatic events, not noticed yet by the public because prices and supply constraints have not reached the consumers hard yet. However, based on these news, people should be alerted. I really hope people will be prepared for the consequences of declining oil supply and maybe even shortages not only at the pump.

Here is a good Voice of America report including a 3 minute video report about the October 2007 ASPO conference in Houston:

http://www.voanews.com/english/2007-10-31-voa81.cfm

Energy Watch Group - New Peak Oil Report

A german politian founded a group that set their mission to watch energy issues around the world: Energy Watch Group - A straight and most detailed analysis of the energy makret. Read the english or the german version:

English Version

German Version

In October 2007 a sub committee published a report about world peak oil based on a field by field analysis and the results are staggering. It is the best peak oil report I have ever read before.

The english report can be downloaded here: Energy Watch Group Crude Oil - The Supply Outlook 2007

Presentations from the ASPO* USA Conference

Take some time after your busy day and read these presentations from respected people in oil business, science and politics - Read about the topic of peak oil:

2007 Houston World Oil Conference: http://www.aspousa.org/proceedings/houston/presentations/

*) ASPO - Association of the Study of Peak Oil

CNN talks about Peak Oil --- Again!

On March 18, 2006, CNN has hosted a show on the topic of Energy: CNN Presents - ''We Were Warned Tommorrow's Oil Crisis'' . This presentation revealed the vulnerability in regards to energy security in the US.

Now, October 30, 2007, CNN reports about the topic of peak oil and is quoting experts* who claim the world crude oil production has already peaked and any crude oil disruption will create a supply disruption and this might trigger an energy crisis - Today. Tomorrow seems to be Today now!

CNN Report: 'World at peak oil output'

(http://edition.cnn.com/2007/BUSINESS/10/24/oil.decline)


*) Experts from the Energy Watch Group in Germany. You can read the entire October 2007 report at:

http://www.energywatchgroup.org/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG_Oilreport_10-2007.pdf

What are Petro Dollars ?

United Emirates of Arabia Oil Revenue Per Year: 5,000,000 million barrels per day * 360 days * 80 dollars oil price = 144,000,000,000 USD = 144 billion US dollars in one year.

144 billion US dollars per year, that is 400 million US dollars per day in revenue that the United Emirates of Arabia earns revenue from crude oil production. What are they doing with all that money? Discover these astonishing projects in Dubai:


Palm Jebel Ali (PJA) and Dubai Waterfront (DWF)

http://www.ssqq.com/archive/vinlin23dubai.htm

http://archive.gulfnews.com/megaprojects/index.html

News Agency Reuters Speaks the Language of Peak Oil

Before you read this article, consider that the USA imports around 1 million barrels of oil from the Mexican Cantarell Oil field per day. That is around 5% of the US oil consumption per day. Now, this oil field is in serious decline and there are no other oil fields which cover these oil production losses. Reuters now speaks a clear peak oil language for the Cantarell Oil FIeld. Oil prices exceeded $91 toady again and it is obvious that we see the effects of peak oil world wide. It is not the time of debating or questions. It is the time for answers.

Mexico's Cantarell oil output recovers in Sept
Reuters - USA
MEXICO CITY, Oct 26 (Reuters) - Crude oil output from Mexico's declining Cantarell offshore field recovered to 1.461 million barrels per day in September ...

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This Google Alert is brought to you by Google.

Will People Ever Know About Peak Oil ?

Seattle, October 17, 2007. I don't believe the public will ever learn about the peak oil phenomenon or understand the concept. The reason is that tensions in the world politics are tightening, things are getting uglier and will escalate, a war might break out between some countries, spread, and actual day-to-day problems will consume all attention the public can show. There might just not be enough time for the people to analyze how we got into this mess.

 

One day, history will be written and we might ask ourselves how this all could have happened and who is to blame for world war III. It might always remain the big mystery of their life for most of the people and different reasons for the decline of this great civil system will be found.

 

Sounds exaggerated? Read the following article on Bloomberg:

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aNfIRh0cknik&refer=home

Burned Out - Ausgebrannt - A Thriller about Peak Oil

Seattle, October 17, 2007: Do you want to know how the world could look like in a couple of months, maybe years? Andreas Eschbach has written a thrilling book about a world with oil becoming scarcer and scarcer, and costlier and costlier.

When you read this book, or if you listen to the great audio tape, you will get introduced to very personal effects peak oil has on the characters in the book. Markus Westermann plays the main character in this thriller. He moves from Germany to the United States to start a new life. He works at a huge software company but he is not staying long at this software company because he meets Block who claims to know how to discover new oil fields. And there the adventure begins ...

The story is a based on extremly well researched information and tells in scary details how the world oil market, politics and geological facts work all together to leave us with this devastating situation of peak oil. This book is a must-read!


Andreas Eschbach, Ausgebrannt - Burned Out

Read a review on Energy Bulletin
Watch a video on Google Video
Read a blog on Peakoil.Blospot

Order the book at Amazon
Order the audio tape at Amazon.

Exxon Mobil and Chevron is paying for your gas at the pump

Los Angeles Oct. 17, 2007. Thank you Exxon Mobil, thank you Chevron, thank you Valero Oil Refinery for taking up the slack between the gas prices at the pump and the real price for gas. Have you ever wondered why the same gas price at the pump has not changed significantly over the last year while at the same time the price for crude oil has increased by around 40% since January this year?

All these billions of dollars, oil companies make in the business of oil production (upstream) due to high crude oil prices are now spent on subisdy funds (price subsidies) for crude oil refineries (downstream) to keep the gas priceses at the pump low - all that for you the consumer, so you would not see the real impact of peak oil.

As a consequence oil refineries and oil companies involved in the downstream business (oil refining) report a profit warning for the 3rd quarter of 2007:

Read about Exxon Mobil's Profit Warning on International Haralb Tribune.
Read about Chevron's Profit Warnings on Marketwatch.com.

The Peak Freak - A Peak Moment Experience

Jenna Orkin is Co-Founder of World Trade Center Environmental Organization and mother of a 17-year-old boy who was a student at Stuyvesant High School four blocks north of Ground Zero on September 11. Jenna learned about Peak Oil in 2002 and she published this touching testimony about her own Peak Moment Experience (PME):
http://www.wtceo.org/wtcenvironmentalorganizationpeakfreakpeakoil.htm

Further information about and from Jenna:
Jenna is actively involved at http://www.petrocollapse.org/
Jenna wrote an article about the Petrocollapse Conference: http://www.energybulletin.net/8457.html
Jenna also started the following blog: http://mikeruppert.blogspot.com/